“Who ordered that?”
– Isaac Rabi, on the discovered the muon, a surprisingly heavy cousin of the electron with no apparent purpose other than to baffle scientists.
Mr. Market was correct about 2G packet switch technology, the EDGE was more than just an alternative to a dial-up connection. Mr. Market was vindicated when the HSPA+, the 3G packet access technology ushered the smartphone paradigm. Now, people spend more time on their mobile phones than their computers or their loved ones. And then, its successor the 4G caused the OTT, multimedia streaming revolution, making the TV and landline unnecessary.
Among this trio, the LTE is the pinnacle, staying up to its name – Long Term Evolution. 3GPP Rel-10, Rel-11, Rel-12 (known as LTE Advanced), Rel-13 and Rel-14 (known as LTE Advanced Pro) achieved the true cellular Broadband (MBB) capability; as a result, replacing fixed broadband with FWA becomes a reality. As CSBF and SRVCC were introduced, LTE became fully backward compatible with the 2G/3G circuit switch network. With VoLTE, 4G is an industry disrupter. As the story goes, a greenfield operator wreaked havoc in the Indian telecom market by offering flat-rate for MBB and VoLTE services only. The Rel-15 made LTE a forward-compatible technology, which made 5G NSA (Option 3) possible.
So what is the real motivation behind the 5G? Is it another market-driven technology like 2G, 3G, 4G as we see every decade or so? Importantly, what is 5G for (that 4G can’t)?
The answer is, we’re in a critical time in history. The telecom market cycle is somehow fused with another important economic cycle, known as the Industrial Revolution, in Europe it’s called Industry 4.0 (the fourth industrial revolution), in the USA it’s called Smart Factory.
As you may recall, the first industrial revolution was triggered by the incorporation of the steam engine into the textile and transport industries. The second revolution marks the use of electricity in the manufacturing industry. The third signifying the integration of computer technology into industrial automation.
Surprisingly, what will drive the fourth industrial revolution comes from guesswork. Four key technologies have been identified – Big Data, AI, Cloud technology, and IoT. The so-call Hyperscalers – Google, Amazon, etc. are the front runners.
All previous industrial revolutions caused massive disruption. Not only they multiply the economic productivity by many folds, but they also reshaped nations and changed global world order. England invented the steam engine, harvested the fruit of Industry 1.0 and ruled the world for centuries. The USA pioneered the electricity and computing technologies, monopolized both Industry 2.0 and 3.0, and now her global influence is undisputed.
The USA is the unchallenged leader in Big Data and Cloud technologies; after all, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, HP, IBM, etc. are all US companies with global deployment. So far, the USA is also ahead in the AI race.
The last technology, the IoT, is somehow relevant to our discussion. As 3G revolutionized the smartphone, The 5G is considered to be the key to IoT. Therefore, 5G technology becomes one of the pillars of Industry 4.0. This is the reason why President Trump will never allow a Chinese company to gain supremacy over the 5G. So, the trouble of Huawei is not going to be over anytime soon.
Historically, industrial revolutions came as a surprise to many. But, this time we hope it to be different. Companies are embracing Industry 4.0 through a process called Digital Transformation. The telecom industry, like any other service-oriented business, started their own journey on Digital Transformation. In telecom, service delivery is becoming a factory-like process. Using Big Data, Cloud technology, AI, and IoT the telecom service delivery can be transformed into Smart Factory.
IoT is not a new concept, 2G has EC-GSM, while the 4G has two standard – LTE-M and NB-IoT. The 3G, due to its single wideband carrier never suited for IoT applications. The problem with the 4G is the scalability, for example – a single sector in LTE can support 50k NB-IoT devices, while the 5G supports 1 million devices/km. Also, IoT was retrofitted in the 4G (which is principally an MBB technology), while the 5G natively support IoT use-cases.
In short, the 5G is not about high throughput. The 5G will undoubtedly increase the average data rate for MBB users compare to 4G. The primary motivation for 5G is its industrial applications – the Industrial 5G.
As explained, the 5G is not merely a market-driven phenomenon (i.e. “show me the money” may not apply in the short run). The 5G is happening with a macroeconomic tsunami. So, it needs massive regulatory and legislative support. If a nation hesitates upon upcoming economic upheaval (as anticipated by Industry 4.0), the 5G adoption by the telecom within her border will be largely worthless.